Heading downhill

Statistics can be very depressing.

The blog Church Growth Modelling is written by John Hayward, a mathematician committed to the revival of the Church. It has lots of downward curves.

I find this one particularly interesting: 

In essence, roughly since the end of the First World War (or the Second, in Wales) Anglican Church affiliation in the West has headed south.

Second, the percentage of the population was not that great in the twentieth century, even at peak membership -  just over 10% for the CofE in the 1910s. And membership of the CofE was never the same as regular attendance. As Haywood says: "Churches in the West have never been as popular as they have perceived themselves to be."

And, third, through this century the population has grown significantly. This itself has helped buoy up absolute numbers while disguising the rate of decline.

Statistics are always retrospective. The question is whether, given the background rate of decline in affiliation Christianity, any one Church - or even all of them acting together - can do anything effective to counter a cultural shift.